GeopoliticsLive Polymarket prices · model estimates shown · recommendations gated pending calibration
Prices are live from the Polymarket Gamma API; model estimates come from a fused market, LLM, and price-trend signal. Rows are ranked by absolute edge rather than EV, because EV divides by fill price and flatters cheap long shots. Edge and EV are withheld on markets too illiquid to trade at size, and on rows where the model disagrees with the market so sharply that a resolution-criteria misread is more likely than an edge. Every recommendation reads NO BET until this category's ledger has enough resolved markets to demonstrate calibrated skill.
Markets
Avg YES Price
Total Volume
Total Liquidity